Globally, MAGNA expects media owners’ advertising revenues will grow by +5% in 2023 to reach approximately $830 billion. This is a slowdown from +7% in 2022 and +23% in 2021. The new 2023 growth forecast is a 1.5 percentage point below MAGNA’s previous global forecast (published in June 2022) due to the macroeconomic outlook. MAGNA’s June forecast was based on a global economic growth expected at the time to reach +3.6% in 2023 (real GDP forecast from IMF WEO April 2022) but that expectation was since cut down to +2.7% in the latest IMF update (WEO October 2022).
Around the global average growth +5% in 2023, MAGNA anticipates few variations as every region is confronted with the same economic challenges. North America and Western Europe with growth below average, growing by +3% to +4%, while APAC (+6%) and Latin America (+9%) will grow slightly faster than average. Among the 15 largest advertising markets, the strongest growth will come from India in 2023 (+14%) followed by South Korea (+7%). At the other end of the spectrum, MAGNA expects very little growth (under +3% all-media, negative for traditional media) in Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain. France and the UK will find themselves close to the global average, with advertising sales growing +5% to +6% next year.
Vincent Létang, EVP, Global Market Research at MAGNA and author of the report, said:
“Advertising spending slowed down in the second half of 2022 because of economic uncertainty and issues affecting digital advertising formats, but traditional editorial media managed to grow by +2.5%. The gap in growth rates with digital advertising growth (+8.9%) was the narrowest ever measured by MAGNA, suggesting that the long-term transition to a digital-centric marketing landscape has slowed down following the COVID acceleration. Marketers continue to value the brand safety that editorial media vendors deliver, combined with expanding cross-platform opportunities. Television (+2%) and OOH media (+12%) were particularly resilient in 2022. The introduction of ad-supported premium streaming in 2023 and the continued success of digital audio formats also exemplify the comeback of ad-supported editorial media in the top of mind of marketers, consumers, and media executives.”