Globally, MAGNA expects media owners’ advertising revenues will grow by +5% in 2023 to reach approximately $830 billion. This is a slowdown from +7% in 2022 and +23% in 2021. The new 2023 growth forecast is a 1.5 percentage point below MAGNA’s previous global forecast (published in June 2022) due to the macroeconomic outlook. MAGNA’s June forecast was based on a global economic growth expected at the time to reach +3.6% in 2023 (real GDP forecast from IMF WEO April 2022) but that expectation was since cut down to +2.7% in the latest IMF update (WEO October 2022).
Around the global average growth +5% in 2023, MAGNA anticipates few variations as every region is confronted with the same economic challenges. North America and Western Europe with growth below average, growing by +3% to +4%, while APAC (+6%) and Latin America (+9%) will grow slightly faster than average. Among the 15 largest advertising markets, the strongest growth will come from India in 2023 (+14%) followed by South Korea (+7%). At the other end of the spectrum, MAGNA expects very little growth (under +3% all-media, negative for traditional media) in Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain. France and the UK will find themselves close to the global average, with advertising sales growing +5% to +6% next year.
Vincent Létang, EVP, Global Market Research at MAGNA and author of the report, said:
“Advertising spending slowed down in the second half of 2022 because of economic uncertainty and issues affecting digital advertising formats, but traditional editorial media managed to grow by +2.5%. The gap in growth rates with digital advertising growth (+8.9%) was the narrowest ever measured by MAGNA, suggesting that the long-term transition to a digital-centric marketing landscape has slowed down following the COVID acceleration. Marketers continue to value the brand safety that editorial media vendors deliver, combined with expanding cross-platform opportunities. Television (+2%) and OOH media (+12%) were particularly resilient in 2022. The introduction of ad-supported premium streaming in 2023 and the continued success of digital audio formats also exemplify the comeback of ad-supported editorial media in the top of mind of marketers, consumers, and media executives.”
Read the Executive Summary and more from MAGNA.
View the Ad Forecast video featuring Luke Stillman (SVP, Global Intelligence) and Rebecca Huang (Jr. Analyst, Global Intelligence).